Episode 054 - Futurist Trends We Can Prepare for Now with Joanna Penn
November 24, 2020
Joanna Penn, The Creative Penn, discusses FUTURIST TRENDS WE CAN PREPARE FOR NOW. She talks about the role persistence plays in making a career as an indy author, the opportunities offered by content curation—for both creators and consumers—and the importance of bringing a global / digital / mobile mindset to your business model, while also recognizing that we can’t beat the machine, so we have to double down on being human.
Joanna Penn is an award-nominated, New York Times and USA Today bestselling author of thrillers as J.F. Penn. As an award-winning creative entrepreneur, she also writes non-fiction for authors and hosts The Creative Penn Podcast. Her site TheCreativePenn.com has been voted in the Top 100 sites for writers by Writer's Digest.
"My challenge to everyone is can your books be bought in every country on mobile devices and / or apps? It's not difficult to do this, and yet I feel like most authors concentrate on their home market without considering the other possibilities." -Joanna Penn
Are you getting value from the podcast? Consider supporting me on Patreon!
Matty: Hello and welcome to The Indy Author Podcast, today my guest is Joanna Penn. Hey, Joanna, how are you doing?
[00:00:06] Joanna: I'm good. Thanks for having me on, Matty.
[00:00:09] Matty: It is my pleasure. I think that all our listeners will probably be familiar with you as Joanna Penn, The Creative Penn, but just to give people a little reminder of your many achievements ... Joanna Penn is an award-nominated, New York Times and USA Today bestselling author of thrillers as J.F. Penn. As an award-winning creative entrepreneur, she also writes non-fiction for authors and hosts The Creative Penn Podcast. Her site TheCreativePenn.com has been voted in the Top 100 sites for writers by Writer's Digest.
[00:00:39] And Joanna is someone who thinks deeply about futurist topics and the way they're going to impact the writing and the publishing worlds. And that's going to form the basis of our topic for today, which is futurist trends we can prepare for now. In other words, what are the concrete steps that authors can take now to be ready to take advantage of more sweeping technical or social changes that are appearing on the horizon?
[00:01:03] So I thought a fun way to start this conversation out would be, Joanna, can you give us an example, looking back a number of years, of a trend you anticipated at that time that is paying off now based on concrete steps you took when you perceived that trend coming?
[00:01:20] Joanna: Yeah, sure. And I want to start by just tackling the word futurist, because I think all I've really done is been interested, and curiosity is the main skill you need for this kind of thing. And if you're interested in a certain area, because of course you can't be futurist and keep an eye on everything, but if you're interested in areas, look at where things are happening and pay attention to signals. So I'm certainly not saying that I predict anything. All I've done over time, and all I'm still attempting to do, is to look at signals going on in the world and in certain environments and then paying attention to them. So I just wanted to address that I'm certainly not predicting anything because we know that never works ...
[00:00:06] Joanna: I'm good. Thanks for having me on, Matty.
[00:00:09] Matty: It is my pleasure. I think that all our listeners will probably be familiar with you as Joanna Penn, The Creative Penn, but just to give people a little reminder of your many achievements ... Joanna Penn is an award-nominated, New York Times and USA Today bestselling author of thrillers as J.F. Penn. As an award-winning creative entrepreneur, she also writes non-fiction for authors and hosts The Creative Penn Podcast. Her site TheCreativePenn.com has been voted in the Top 100 sites for writers by Writer's Digest.
[00:00:39] And Joanna is someone who thinks deeply about futurist topics and the way they're going to impact the writing and the publishing worlds. And that's going to form the basis of our topic for today, which is futurist trends we can prepare for now. In other words, what are the concrete steps that authors can take now to be ready to take advantage of more sweeping technical or social changes that are appearing on the horizon?
[00:01:03] So I thought a fun way to start this conversation out would be, Joanna, can you give us an example, looking back a number of years, of a trend you anticipated at that time that is paying off now based on concrete steps you took when you perceived that trend coming?
[00:01:20] Joanna: Yeah, sure. And I want to start by just tackling the word futurist, because I think all I've really done is been interested, and curiosity is the main skill you need for this kind of thing. And if you're interested in a certain area, because of course you can't be futurist and keep an eye on everything, but if you're interested in areas, look at where things are happening and pay attention to signals. So I'm certainly not saying that I predict anything. All I've done over time, and all I'm still attempting to do, is to look at signals going on in the world and in certain environments and then paying attention to them. So I just wanted to address that I'm certainly not predicting anything because we know that never works ...
click here to read more
[00:02:02] But a couple of really obvious examples ... I self-published first back in 2008, and this was before the Kindle happened and eBooks at the time were downloadable PDFs, what they called eBooks back then. And what happened was the international Kindle arrived in Australia. So I was living in Australia and when I saw what the Kindle was going to bring in terms of being a reader -- so in Australia, a print book was $30 for a book, it was so expensive compared to here in the UK -- and as an avid reader, when I saw the potential of what the Kindle was going to be in the US. If people don't remember, it launched first in the US and only US authors were allowed to publish on it. And so I was one of the first people in Australia to get my Kindle.
[00:02:53] So I pre-ordered it soon as I possibly could. And when it arrived there's still a video on YouTube from 2009, I think it must have been, when it first arrived. And this video of me is hilarious because I am like, This is the future. This is definitely going to change the world for readers and for authors. Look at this! And what I did at the time, because this is the only way to do it was you used Smashwords to publish on the early Kindle and also onto the iPhone, which had also just launched.
[00:03:24] So I think I'm probably early in environments in terms of what I end up taking advantage of later. So I was early on the Kindle, early on mobile, and also early in podcasting. As you know, I've been podcasting since 2009, and my show now is one of the oldest in the writing niche, certainly one of the longest running full time podcasts. WRITING EXCUSES has been around for longer, but they don't go full-time, they go in seasons and they've changed hosts and all kinds of things.
[00:03:55] But I feel like both of these examples -- so self-publishing before it was trendy and eBooks before it was acceptable and also podcasting before it went mainstream, probably about five years later for both of these things. Actually it took three to five years before a lot more people got on board and, it was really seeing a technology that I personally wanted to use and starting and then persisting.
[00:04:22] So I said to you before we started recording, after episode 50 on a podcast, you kind of feel like you know what you're doing and I think I got to around episode 250 of my podcast and then I was like, Do you know what? This is just taking a lot of time and not making any money. I should probably give it up. And I didn't give up. And of course I haven't given up self-publishing either, being an indy author.
[00:04:45] And the persistence is what makes it successful in the long run, and obviously pivoting along the way to whatever comes up since then. But it was really interest and curiosity that sparked what happened. And then persistence is what makes you seem prescient in a niche. If I'd given up my podcast years ago, you wouldn't be asking you about it.
[00:05:07] Matty: And at the time when you were at that 250 mark and you were making that decision, what was it that drove you to stick with it?
[00:05:17] Joanna: Oh, in that situation, I can't remember if it was 250, but it was around 2014. So I'd been doing the show for about five years and it was literally that it takes time to do a podcast. And there weren't the tools around at the time that we have now -- things like Descript, I know you use Descript as well -- for doing the editing and stuff. So it was hard work. I was paying for transcription, all of that.
[00:05:39] And the reason I kept going was I, monetized the show, and this is a good tip. If I had been self-publishing and podcasting for over a decade and I hadn't made any money, I probably would have stopped by now. You can do things as a hobby, but this is a business for me. I left my job in 2011. So when you're doing this as a business, when you're an independent author as a business, things have to pay the way and either they are just marketing, or they also have other revenue streams. Actually that might be in the early days of Patreon. So I went on Patreon, I got advertising, and pretty much monetized my show in a way that before then it wasn't really acceptable to or wasn't really available to.
[00:06:22] And of course now -- we're recording this in late 2020 -- podcast revenue is booming. So very different times. And I think that's important for people to consider. If you think back to 2009, for example, when most people didn't have what we now call a smartphone or just a phone that we don't use for phoning people, we use for computer stuff, things are just totally different in terms of technology. So that's something to keep in mind as we talk about some of these other things.
[00:06:54] Matty: Another interesting trend that I feel like I'm seeing -- and I'll be curious to see if you agree, this is sort of a societal trend rather than a technical trend -- is that there was a period of time with the internet where it was very exciting to be able to get all this stuff for free. And I think we're getting to a period where even though this content is still free -- I can listen to The Creative Penn Podcast or The Indy Author Podcast for free -- there's this growing understanding that there's creative effort being put into these products and that people are willing to pay for them as an acknowledgement of that effort, not because they have to. Do you see that having changed over the last few years and continuing into the future?
[00:07:34] Joanna: Yeah, I think you're definitely right. I think the rewarding creators directly, people are much more confident using these services to exchange money and to even give a couple of dollars or pounds or whatever the currency is. It has become more acceptable to do that. Whereas it wasn't before. Also I think the curation model has become incredibly important. So there are so many books, so many podcasts, so many news tips about things that playing a curation role is what can be the thing that makes you stand apart.
[00:08:08] So for example, I know on my show, The Creative Penn Podcast, people who've been listening for a long time, some people since the beginning, they don't come for the interviews anymore. They come for curation on publishing news because they know how to do stuff. Like you, for example, you know how to write books. You wouldn't listen to a podcast on my show about writing books, but you might come for the curation of the latest publishing news, for example.
[00:08:35] And that's what I pay for now from other people. I pay for curation of things so that I can then repurpose that and find the bits that I think are interesting for my audience. So, yeah, you're exactly right. I think the curation and the direct relationship with creators is important.
[00:08:54] Matty: And I'll just throw out the thanks that early on in my indy author career, I was really thrashing, with trying to find, I was spending much more time trying to research questions than I was writing. And I finally decided, I'm just going to pick one reputable, knowledgeable person and whatever they say to do, I'm going to do. And you were that person.
[00:09:15] Joanna: Thank you.
[00:09:16] Matty: I want to say that I owe much of my indy author career to your great advice. And I think that I was one of the last people who had a one-on-one consulting session with you when you still offered them.
[00:09:26] Joanna: Oh, that was a while ago now. But I think that is an important point is actually finding the voice that you do resonate with. You and I are a similar age, we've met, and I think we have a sort of similar mindset around things, even though we're from different countries and different backgrounds and all of that. So I think that's important.
[00:09:48] I resonated with a guy called Yaro Starak. He's still podcasting, is still creating content. And I found Yaro back in 2009, and even though he's younger than me, he's a guy, he's into Dungeons and Dragons and he's quite different in many ways, and yet I was able to model his business and I definitely credit him with the design of my business, even though he doesn't write fiction or even any books, it's similar.
[00:10:13] So I urge people listen and find the voice that you resonate with. And maybe it's you, Matty, or maybe it is me, or maybe it's someone else. And that can be in different areas of your life as well. And then, as you say, listen to them. Like Kristine Kathryn Rusch is someone for both of us, whose voice I trust. And Dean Wesley Smith as well. But, you know, they talk in different ways and it's very important to find these voices because it's so noisy out there.
[00:10:42] Matty: Yes. And I would say that anything that The Creative Penn is doing now, The Indy Author is going to be doing in three or four years. So you guys can anticipate my business plan. Which I think is a good entree into the futurist topic.
[00:10:58] Looking forward, there are many interesting technical and societal changes that you talk about periodically on The Creative Penn. And they're not the things that are hitting Publishers Weekly necessarily, or the places people may be going for what they should be doing today. But I do believe there are steps people can be taking today to prepare for those things that seem a little more out there. So what would be some examples of what those things are and what steps people can take to prepare for them?
[00:11:28] Joanna: Well, of course you primed me for this question. And I had to think about it because obviously I'm very interested in things like artificial intelligence and the way that it's going to disrupt our business model. But in a way, we're at the point of that arc, right now, of just being aware of it. So in terms of your more practical question, which is how can people take advantage of trends?
[00:11:50] So I've pulled it back a bit. And my first one is going to be something I've talked about for years, which is global, digital, mobile. Yes. So having a global, digital, mobile business model, and this is how I've designed my business. And I know you've been listening to me on that, but what's so interesting in 2020 is the pandemic has accelerated these trends.
[00:12:12] And I know particularly Americans -- sorry, Americans listening, and America is this fantastic country and there's a lot of business going on there -- but if you look at the growth in digital sales for eBooks, print on demand, audio books, and for things like podcasts and all of that, my podcast has been downloaded in 228 countries, and I have sold books in 158 countries. So most authors will not have sold books in that many countries and their books may not even be available there.
[00:12:45] So a very interesting example is France. The French very much have protected the traditional publishing industry hugely. So much so that they have penalized Amazon, for example, you can't have free shipping in France for books or anything I believe. But Amazon got around that by having it for a cent or Euro or something like that.
[00:13:07] So what's happened with France and Spain and Italy in the pandemic is these are markets where print has been dominant, but with print bookstores not available for months during the pandemic, people have switched online. So we've been waiting for this change for so long. So even though I've been saying global, digital, mobile for over a decade, it feels like the shift in 2020 has actually meant that it's starting to happen.
[00:13:33] So people now have realized they can use their mobile devices, their tablets, to shop for books. And what's going to happen in the next five years -- so between 2020 and 2025 -- we're going to see essentially the rest of the world come on board, which is, you know, several billion more people will be coming online through mobile devices.
[00:13:59] And this is an example of leapfrog technology. It's very hard for us to understand that being in the US or the UK, because our experience has been no computers, followed by massive desktop computers, followed by laptops, followed by a mobile device. Whereas most people in the rest of the world are going from no computer to a mobile device. So it's very hard for us to understand how the experience of reading and the experience of buying will be different.
[00:14:33] But my challenge to everyone is to think, okay, now the floodgates are open and now we know that in the next five years, several billion more people are coming online. And given that English is the most international language, the challenge is, can your books be bought in every country on mobile devices and / or apps? And we're not going to get into the technical ways of publishing, but it's not difficult to do this. And yet I feel like most authors concentrate on their home market without considering the other possibilities.
[00:15:09] Matty: Talk a little bit about the role that Android plays in that trend.
[00:15:14] Joanna: The fact is that you can get an Android, and I always use the word smartphone, my husband just laughs at me, he's like, Nobody uses the phrase "smartphone." I'm like, Yes, they do. Because in many countries, a mobile phone is still not a smartphone, so it doesn't have the internet on, for example. But what this rollout of internet 5G is going to make a big difference as well. But a lot of countries will have 4G internet. That's going to be the first thing they experience. And so real true smartphones are now becoming available for just a couple of dollars. And this is the thing -- we all think, again, in the West that smartphones are an $800 iPhone or a thousand-dollar iPhone, but it can be a $5 Android device that can still access the internet.
[00:16:00] So Google Play obviously is the default app on an Android. And I feel like most authors are ignoring Google Play. Whereas they're actually coming into their own, really. But equally lots of other apps can appear on the Android devices. And so that's something to consider. Think about the closed ecosystems that people might publish on.
[00:16:24] So for example, if you only publish audio on Audible and / or iTunes, then you're really going to miss out on that market. And if you're using prices that are US dollar skewed and not changing to territory pricing, you're going to miss out on that too. So I just think that so much of what we do has not even started. Like you and I take this stuff for granted because we've been doing it a while, but I think the pandemic has made me realize all this news about how many more people have discovered online things like Zoom. I'm like, Really? Were people not doing this before? And so you realize that the majority of people might not have gotten an ebook for free on Kobo or listened to a podcast on Google Podcasts or whatever. So that's just something for people to consider.
[00:17:18] Matty: A real strength of Zoom is the fact that it opens up networking opportunities for authors, where in the past, they might've just gone down to the coffee shop and gotten together with other writers in their local writers’ groups. Now, if you can get that initial introduction, you can really network with anyone anywhere.
[00:17:38] Joanna: Yes, absolutely. And I think that we're going to have a hybrid approach, I think, as per usual. I'm certainly craving some conferences, which I never thought I would say in my life. I'm an introvert and I feel like, Do you know what? I'd really like to go to a conference and not always be online. But equally it will be that hybrid approach that people need to do.
[00:18:01] And that is another thing is you do need to upskill for this type of thing -- for interviews, for performing through a computer. It's still a professional speaking opportunity. I spoke on Saturday to a group of like 200 authors through Zoom and it has its own anxieties, and it has its own difficulties. And you still need to be able to project energy through a screen, which can be quite difficult compared to doing it in person. So I think you're right. And certainly networking, it will open it up to more people because, as you say, it will be more global. And it will also mean that potentially the human relationships where you meet people in person will become more important in a way, because they'll become more memorable for example.
[00:18:49] Matty: And it will be nice when we can share gin and tonics at the hotel conference bar, as opposed to just sitting in our own living room, looking at the same screen with our gin and tonic.
[00:18:59] Joanna: Yes. And I do think, just to bring in virtual reality and augmented reality -- let's just be aware of this, this is not mainstream at all as yet -- I just saw the latest Oculus. I think it's Oculus Quest. It's about £300, which is about $400 with the exchange rate right now. And it doesn't need a PC. Everything is in the headset. Now, as far as I can see, it's still pretty bulky. If people don't know, it's like a big pair of goggles, like a diving mask, but what it does mean it is getting better and better. So I do anticipate that we will be networking, speaking, presenting within virtual reality, which will almost be the next thing after the Zoom / Skype experience, which will be one step better.
[00:19:47] Now that will be very interesting because of course we're creatives, we're very used to making things up. If you can make your avatar something different, that is going to be fascinating. I could potentially present as Morgan Sierra, my main Arkane character, at some kind of event and put on a different body and different hairstyle or whatever. I could present as Jake Timber, I guess, who's her partner in crime.
[00:20:14] But it is interesting to think how the online human relationships will change. For example, SECOND LIFE, I know people who are still in SECOND LIFE, but when SECOND LIFE goes into VR -- which they have a community for that right now, but it's certainly not mainstream -- that will be very interesting. But again, that's not something you can practically get involved with right now as an author unless you are in a much more technical space.
[00:20:44] Matty: It seems as if a baby step toward that could be something that I heard you and Orna Ross talk about in a related discussion that I'm going to link to in the show notes for this episode, "How Will Self-publishing Change in the 2020s?" -- that came out in January.
[00:21:00] Joanna: I can't even remember that now. That was pre-pandemic.
[00:21:03] Matty: That was pre-pandemic, and it was interesting because there was a certain amount of discussion about in-person conferences, but you had mentioned that you had either done or were thinking of doing a virtual tour of Bath based on the locations of your books. And I know that Mark Lefebvre has done this with some of his non-fiction ghost stories in, Hamilton, Ontario, doing a virtual tour.
[00:21:28] And that might be a nice entree to thinking about one's stories in a more visual, more interactive way for people to maybe just get out their smartphone camera, turn on the video, and take people on a tour of their novel settings.
[00:21:45] Joanna: Yeah. And I think right now that is a video on YouTube. I did a podcast episode on Bath on my BOOKS AND TRAVEL podcast, which is my other podcast. And this is where we have to be practical and I need to rein myself back. I'm permanently jumping on things and going, Oh, look, this is cool. I'm going to try this out and see how it is, and then I'm like, No, you need to concentrate on the things that you can control, which is why I reined this back to the stuff that is worth doing.
[00:22:14] It's definitely worth making a video about the settings that are in your book or a podcast or whatever, but I spoke to Mark about his thing and it really is just an audio tour based on location stuff and the amount of time things take to do have to relate to some kind of business goals. So like we talked about before, around podcasting, if your goal is just marketing, then fine. But if you want to make income, you might have to do things in a different way.
[00:22:42] So I do want to bring this back to a related topic, which I'm still struggling to articulate about the future, but it is related to what we've talked about, which is that I believe digital income from books alone -- and when I say books here, I'm talking about eBooks audio books, print on demand books -- that will diminish. And this is based on exactly what I just said around global, digital, mobile, and what has happened with the music industry and the acceleration of streaming and subscription models, which a lot of us are and looking at the moment, especially in terms of audio with Spotify coming into audio books. It's not just Kindle Unlimited for eBooks. It's also all the other ones.
[00:23:29] So why I think this is important for futurist trends, especially if you want to be a full-time author, is that you need to understand that, yes, you have to be on these platforms. But then you have to consider that book sales income alone is not a full-time income. And even if it has been in the past, it may well not be in the future, if the income continues to come down, which is what we have seen with e-books and with audio books, for sure. My best year for eBooks, in terms of related to the number of books I have was 2016 before KU really hit and for audio books, I think that 2021 is going to be a big shift because more and more listeners are moving to subscription.
[00:24:21] So I don't want people to see that as a negative. I want people to see that as the reality of consumption means that you need to think about other forms of income. So for example, we've seen massive Kickstarters. People like Brandon Sanderson made over $6.7 million for doing a special edition for his fans. Now you don't need to make $6.7 million, but even if you make even $20K or something, that can be a big thing. Patreon again is something that I really love. Other forms, you know, speaking, you can do paid speaking. There are lots of ways to make other income streams. So that is my kind of warning sign around digital income. Keep an eye on that. So what do you think about that?
[00:25:11] Matty: One thing I wanted to mention is that I'm going to be having a conversation with Joshua Essoe about Kickstarter in an episode that I think will come out shortly after yours will. And so people can keep an eye out for that. My thought about the subscription, that totally makes sense to me, and I guess that a concrete step people could take is first of all, scan your own usage and see where you're a subscriber that you might not even be thinking about. And if you're not a subscriber, maybe try subscribing to one of these services that provides content on a subscription basis, because I think it's important to experience these things as consumer before you can take full advantage of them as a content creator.
[00:25:52] Joanna: Netflix is a really good example because a friend of mine who's an author just couldn't get her head around this. And I said, you have Netflix, you pay £7 a month for all this content, and you expect it to be there and you expect to be able to get hours and hours and hours of incredible content for this tiny payment. And the same with Spotify. I've just been reading a lot about how that has changed musicians' income. And we knew this was happening in terms of the music industry, similar to the publishing industry in terms of business models changing and what happens when things go digital.
[00:26:30] But I just think what's happened again this year is it's gone mainstream. So for example, I knew that the Kindle and eBooks had gone mainstream when my mum got a Kindle. I think it was probably 2016 when she got one, and then this year, during the pandemic, my mum has moved to Netflix. And I think when my mum does something -- she's like 73 -- I think, okay, that is mainstream then, because she's very cautious, she doesn't even have internet banking, stuff like that, because she's worried about technology. So when she makes a shift like that, it makes me go okay, there's a whole load of people who are not just the edge of the world, now this is really gone mainstream.
[00:27:16] We know that Spotify is going to come into audio books in 2021, and that is changing the behavior of some of the other players in the market. And so I do think that the action to me is to say that by 2022, you better have other streams of income, just in case that all of these moves to subscription means that your revenue model changes. Because what it means is lots of micro payments instead of bigger chunks.
[00:27:49] Matty: Your comment about your mom getting a Kindle sort of suggests the other side of that, which is there's an everything old is new again aspect, which is that once the Kindle came out with the adjustable text size, I thought, this is such a great boon for people who have a sight impairment. Now these awkward large print books are going to be a thing of the past. And true to my business plan, you had recommended large print. You had done large print, I think maybe initially for your mom's books and then for your own and pointed out that you can do it with very little investment other than a little bit of time. So I thought, okay, I'm going to try to do that. And it's been quite profitable.
[00:28:29] And so there are some things that I would never have thought I would bring up print books in a conversation about futurist trends. But people shouldn't be discounting those things that have been around for a long time and maybe either are having a second wind or are dying off much more slowly than we might've thought five years ago.
[00:28:51] Joanna: Oh, you're exactly right. And the same thing in music. So what has come back? Well, vinyl, you know, vinyl became a thing. And Patreon also became a thing for musicians and obviously touring, which you could equate with speaking as a non-fiction writer, for example. But certainly, Brandon Sanderson's Kickstarter is a good example of a limited-edition print object.
[00:29:13] I have definitely started looking into doing these as well. We do large print with print on demand and it's still great for libraries and all of that. But again, I don't know how much of that is just a demographic that will, just to put it bluntly, die off at some point, because I do think that if you are younger, you are probably changing the way you're consuming in terms of, like you say, with digital audio, stuff like that. I hope that won't offend anyone.
[00:29:41] But it's like with print and special editions, you can do some really interesting stuff. And I think we need to almost be more creative. I feel like indy authors have taken the basics for granted for too long. I think that's really how I'm feeling. So to me now you have to have an ebook. You have to have a print on demand paperback. You really probably should have an audio book if you have a big enough catalog and a budget for it. But those things are almost the basics that are necessary.
[00:30:12] And then we need to be creative around some of these other things. So like you said, the limited edition, maybe doing things like Patreon for short stories. There's unlimited numbers -- like merchandise, some people do merchandise, that type of thing. So it's getting creative around stuff and not relying on what has been the bread and butter, I think for most indy authors for a decade probably.
[00:30:36] Matty: Some of what you're saying about the limited edition and the special Kickstarter bonuses of beautifully made books, I think also suggests a trend that I would not have anticipated a couple of years ago, which is that I would have thought things would get bigger and bigger and more and more digitized. And now I think there's this kind of backlash against that, where people are looking for the personalized experiences. And I know you had said that you were switching away from having a focus strictly on scalability to more personalization. I'm not sure I'm expressing that accurately, but can you comment on that?
[00:31:15] Joanna: Yes. Well, that brings us neatly to my third thing that I had on my list to talk about, which is personal brand. And again, this is something that is not new but it's something that is becoming more and more important. And it ties into what you're saying there, which is, it is very, very, very noisy out there. And I mean, I consume books voraciously. I read a lot, but can I remember them a week or two later? Often, I can't. It's difficult, but it's true. I mean, even I can't remember what I created back in January.
[00:31:50] So if you think about, that's me and that's my life, and then if you consider the artificial intelligence tools like GPT-3, which is the text generation tool, there are -- and I'm going to be reporting on this on my show soon -- but there are now books on Amazon written by GPT-3. They're not necessarily selling very well, but there was so much content that the main thing is to become more memorable and by building a personal brand and by demonstrating how you stand out. As I've said before, you know, you can't beat the machine, you have to double down on being human and being you.
[00:32:26] And so as you mentioned, when the pandemic is over, when we are back out in the world again, I want to do some events here in Bath because the location is very special and I'm ready to do in-person events that are very limited in terms of the people who could come to that, but also there'll be much more memorable.
[00:32:49] And, you know, I will always remember you because we've met in person and hung out together and that makes you stand out in my mind. And I think as much as we can network online, meeting people physically is still going to make a difference.
[00:33:06] I also think that what we've seen on both sides of your American political spectrum is a backlash against big tech. So we may find that these tools are not even available. There's been action in Congress against Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple around their domination in some of these areas. So it may be that the tools we take for granted may change in the next few years.
[00:33:31] So having a personal brand, building your email list, building a channel, you can speak to people, means that you can make money in these other ways. So you can email people about a Kickstarter or you can put out a podcast episode and have patrons pay for that, or you can do these different things. So, yeah, I definitely think that personal brand is more important. And if people listening are new, then you grow into this. Nobody knows what their personal brand is in the beginning and nobody knows their own voice. You just have to give things a try and you'll grow into it.
[00:34:06] Matty: I want to ask you very literally about voice, because we were talking about some things people should start doing in order to prepare for these trends that we're discussing. And I don't want to overlook things perhaps people should consider stop doing because of this. And specifically I'm thinking about narrating audio books and specifically narrating non-fiction audio books, because I've been trying to get the audio book for TAKING THE SHORT TACK done for months. And I'm slowly, painfully making progress on it. And then when I'm done with that, I'm going to want to have an audio book for PODCASTING FOR AUTHORS.
[00:34:39] But I've also plugged text into the voice double that I created through Descript and it doesn't sound all that bad. What is your thought about the pros and cons of AI narration for audio books, and then feel free to take that further into audio in general?
[00:34:58] Joanna: I think we're talking at a point where I just don't know -- up until really recently I still would have thought it was worth doing, but I was actually talking to Mark Lefebvre, our mutual friend, about this the other day. And I feel like we're in what Seth Godin calls the dip. So there's a point at which the technology is going to be almost perfect, but we're not there yet, and I'm not sure how long it's going to take. I mean, it feels to me like we might only be 18 months away from that being very, very good.
[00:35:36] But of course the other side is are the retailers and the subscription services going to allow that to be sold or borrowed? And the other question is how much should it cost? So I think what we're in right now, and I know exactly what you mean, because I almost feel, again, we're recording this November 2020, and I haven't fully decided myself whether it's worth doing, paying for premium audio right now, because I almost wonder if by 2022, 2023, it will be mass market AI audio, which will be almost like eBooks. They'll just be so much that everything will be in audio. And then what you'll have is a bit like we're talking about with these special editions, you'll have the human narrated audio will be some kind of special edition.
[00:36:34] So for example, you can hear the I'm coming up with stuff on the fly. You know I'm not reading from the screen. I would be much more polished if I was reading from a screen. So maybe you could get one of my books in audio for the AI narrated version, which is literally an AI voice that sounds like me, just reading the text, and that might be cheap. It might just be part of your subscription and I get a tiny micro payment for that.
[00:37:01] Then I might have a special edition audio where at the end of every chapter, I will go off the book and I will come up with interesting things on the fly that if you're a fan of mine, you might be interested in getting that version because you want the extra information that comes with that special edition. And so that would just be a different product. It would be more costly to produce. And with fiction, it would be the difference between an AI voice narrating it and a professional actor, or some of these wonderful voice dramas that we're having with multiple actors and music and all of that. So that's how I see the future going. I see there being a sort of baseline AI production of an audio. And then I see there being these multiple other editions.
[00:37:55] And the reason this is also interesting is because traditional publishing contracts right now, and some independent author contracts, do not encompass this vast array of potential audio. Or as I talked about before, if people like our voices, that's great. But what if an American listening to one of my books would prefer it narrated rated in an American accent, or they prefer it by an African-American man, for example, or what if I want books read in by an English female voice.
[00:38:28] So I think that will come as well as that you'll be able to pick a narrator for a book. And that again is a completely different licensing structure. So yeah, I feel like we're in the dip, you know, we're almost on the cusp of what is going to be an explosion of audio technology, but we're not quite there yet.
[00:38:48] So the question is, do you want to invest? I think you should do these two books yourself. I don't think it's good enough yet. And also, you can't sell it because no platform will allow you to upload AI audio books right now. And you could give it away for free on your website, but what you have to decide is what is worth doing.
[00:39:08] So that's how I feel. I do think that we're coming into this very interesting time.
[00:39:15] Joanna: I think that we're on just on the cusp of a lot of change in terms of technology, but that's why I wanted to bring up the income around the things that we've taken for granted because with more and more tech change and more and more personalization, more and more content, because of course, with AI translation, which is incredibly good, it's a step change this year to what it was last year.
[00:39:41] It's so improved like every five minutes. It stuns me how AI translation is going. And I mean that plus a voice so that we could get our books done so easily just shows you how much an explosion of content is coming and how much choice we will have as consumers, but also inevitably with more choice, the price comes down, and that's what we've seen with streaming and subscriptions.
[00:40:09] So I see both a very positive shift with the opportunities to get our work out there, but also we have to be cognizant of the impact on our author businesses and continue to build up relationships with readers so that we can make a living if we do make a living online, which of course most authors don't, but many people listening to your show, I guess, might want that.
[00:40:35] Matty: I like the idea that I shouldn't give up on narrating the audio books, because the end product will be different. It could be two products. It could be me as a human being narrating the audio books, and then in a couple of years at a lower price, making the AI version available.
[00:40:51] Joanna: That's what I think it will happen.
[00:40:53] Matty: Do you think the same is true for translation? Because translation is something that I have never pursued, and I don't have any plans to pursue, because my hope is that the AI translations will come along quickly enough that it's not worth it for me to invest that money into getting a translation done. What are your thoughts about that?
[00:41:14] Joanna: I've read your work, your nonfiction work particularly, is very well structured. And I would think your books would quite easily be translated by an AI translation tool, your non-fiction as I have done with my non-fiction into German, but I still had to pay for a human editor from the AI translation.
[00:41:33] But I agree with you. I decided to not do any more translations. I am licensing in translation, but that's because that's money in the pocket now and also a limited timeframe and getting those rights back, getting Korean rights back, in 10 years’ time. I think by then, we might have some, yeah, the AI translation will be mainstream.
[00:41:55] But I definitely agree with you. I don't think it's worth investing in translation now. If you're bilingual, it can be a good way to get your work there in a language that you already conversant in. So I think the problem is the marketing. The problem is building a fan base and a lot of the publishers in these other countries have done that.
[00:42:15] So that is another really important thing. It's not just that we have books available, it's that we also market them. The same is going to happen if you think of every author gets all their work into an AI audio or in AI translated German, that doesn't mean anyone's going to buy it. So we have to keep coming back to the practicalities of our author business and how much we're able to do in the bandwidth we have. With all this choice we have, you have to decide what you're going to focus on.
[00:42:44] And I think just to bring it back to where we started, really, which is we're still writers and we can be interested in this stuff and curious, but we have to focus on the things that are the core of our business. And that is creating new books and reaching readers. And hopefully we've talked about some interesting things, but I guess not everything is so practical to get into right now.
[00:43:07] Matty: If people are intrigued by these topics, do you have some recommendations for where they should go to find out more about some of these futurist trends?
[00:43:16] Joanna: On my site, The Creative Penn, I've actually got a page, so it's thecreativepenn.com/future. And I collected a whole load of stuff there, and the various episodes I do on my show -- for example, AI and creativity and how artificial intelligence is going to disrupt us -- I keep all my main things there. Also I've got a load of book recommendations. And I do share on my show, every few weeks I'll share a futurist segment of stuff I'm thinking about.
[00:43:47] And I read a lot of blogs and I listened to a lot of podcasts, so I won't recommend all of those, but I do try and curate them, as I said. And I will be doing an update in early December 2020 will be my next AI update show. So I think find the people you want to listen to, I think that would be the thing.
[00:44:07] Matty: Excellent. And you've mentioned TheCreative Penn.com and The Creative Penn Podcast. Is there anywhere else you'd like to send people if they want to find out more about you?
[00:44:16] Joanna: Oh, thank you. Any questions, Twitter is the best place at The Creative Penn. And my fiction is all under J F Penn, Jo Frances Penn. And I also have the BOOKS AND TRAVEL podcast. So if you like books and travel, come on over to that one, which is quite different to the types of topics we've talked about today.
[00:44:36] But, thanks so much for having me Matty. That was great fun.
[00:44:39] Matty: It has been great fun. Thank you, Joanna
[00:02:53] So I pre-ordered it soon as I possibly could. And when it arrived there's still a video on YouTube from 2009, I think it must have been, when it first arrived. And this video of me is hilarious because I am like, This is the future. This is definitely going to change the world for readers and for authors. Look at this! And what I did at the time, because this is the only way to do it was you used Smashwords to publish on the early Kindle and also onto the iPhone, which had also just launched.
[00:03:24] So I think I'm probably early in environments in terms of what I end up taking advantage of later. So I was early on the Kindle, early on mobile, and also early in podcasting. As you know, I've been podcasting since 2009, and my show now is one of the oldest in the writing niche, certainly one of the longest running full time podcasts. WRITING EXCUSES has been around for longer, but they don't go full-time, they go in seasons and they've changed hosts and all kinds of things.
[00:03:55] But I feel like both of these examples -- so self-publishing before it was trendy and eBooks before it was acceptable and also podcasting before it went mainstream, probably about five years later for both of these things. Actually it took three to five years before a lot more people got on board and, it was really seeing a technology that I personally wanted to use and starting and then persisting.
[00:04:22] So I said to you before we started recording, after episode 50 on a podcast, you kind of feel like you know what you're doing and I think I got to around episode 250 of my podcast and then I was like, Do you know what? This is just taking a lot of time and not making any money. I should probably give it up. And I didn't give up. And of course I haven't given up self-publishing either, being an indy author.
[00:04:45] And the persistence is what makes it successful in the long run, and obviously pivoting along the way to whatever comes up since then. But it was really interest and curiosity that sparked what happened. And then persistence is what makes you seem prescient in a niche. If I'd given up my podcast years ago, you wouldn't be asking you about it.
[00:05:07] Matty: And at the time when you were at that 250 mark and you were making that decision, what was it that drove you to stick with it?
[00:05:17] Joanna: Oh, in that situation, I can't remember if it was 250, but it was around 2014. So I'd been doing the show for about five years and it was literally that it takes time to do a podcast. And there weren't the tools around at the time that we have now -- things like Descript, I know you use Descript as well -- for doing the editing and stuff. So it was hard work. I was paying for transcription, all of that.
[00:05:39] And the reason I kept going was I, monetized the show, and this is a good tip. If I had been self-publishing and podcasting for over a decade and I hadn't made any money, I probably would have stopped by now. You can do things as a hobby, but this is a business for me. I left my job in 2011. So when you're doing this as a business, when you're an independent author as a business, things have to pay the way and either they are just marketing, or they also have other revenue streams. Actually that might be in the early days of Patreon. So I went on Patreon, I got advertising, and pretty much monetized my show in a way that before then it wasn't really acceptable to or wasn't really available to.
[00:06:22] And of course now -- we're recording this in late 2020 -- podcast revenue is booming. So very different times. And I think that's important for people to consider. If you think back to 2009, for example, when most people didn't have what we now call a smartphone or just a phone that we don't use for phoning people, we use for computer stuff, things are just totally different in terms of technology. So that's something to keep in mind as we talk about some of these other things.
[00:06:54] Matty: Another interesting trend that I feel like I'm seeing -- and I'll be curious to see if you agree, this is sort of a societal trend rather than a technical trend -- is that there was a period of time with the internet where it was very exciting to be able to get all this stuff for free. And I think we're getting to a period where even though this content is still free -- I can listen to The Creative Penn Podcast or The Indy Author Podcast for free -- there's this growing understanding that there's creative effort being put into these products and that people are willing to pay for them as an acknowledgement of that effort, not because they have to. Do you see that having changed over the last few years and continuing into the future?
[00:07:34] Joanna: Yeah, I think you're definitely right. I think the rewarding creators directly, people are much more confident using these services to exchange money and to even give a couple of dollars or pounds or whatever the currency is. It has become more acceptable to do that. Whereas it wasn't before. Also I think the curation model has become incredibly important. So there are so many books, so many podcasts, so many news tips about things that playing a curation role is what can be the thing that makes you stand apart.
[00:08:08] So for example, I know on my show, The Creative Penn Podcast, people who've been listening for a long time, some people since the beginning, they don't come for the interviews anymore. They come for curation on publishing news because they know how to do stuff. Like you, for example, you know how to write books. You wouldn't listen to a podcast on my show about writing books, but you might come for the curation of the latest publishing news, for example.
[00:08:35] And that's what I pay for now from other people. I pay for curation of things so that I can then repurpose that and find the bits that I think are interesting for my audience. So, yeah, you're exactly right. I think the curation and the direct relationship with creators is important.
[00:08:54] Matty: And I'll just throw out the thanks that early on in my indy author career, I was really thrashing, with trying to find, I was spending much more time trying to research questions than I was writing. And I finally decided, I'm just going to pick one reputable, knowledgeable person and whatever they say to do, I'm going to do. And you were that person.
[00:09:15] Joanna: Thank you.
[00:09:16] Matty: I want to say that I owe much of my indy author career to your great advice. And I think that I was one of the last people who had a one-on-one consulting session with you when you still offered them.
[00:09:26] Joanna: Oh, that was a while ago now. But I think that is an important point is actually finding the voice that you do resonate with. You and I are a similar age, we've met, and I think we have a sort of similar mindset around things, even though we're from different countries and different backgrounds and all of that. So I think that's important.
[00:09:48] I resonated with a guy called Yaro Starak. He's still podcasting, is still creating content. And I found Yaro back in 2009, and even though he's younger than me, he's a guy, he's into Dungeons and Dragons and he's quite different in many ways, and yet I was able to model his business and I definitely credit him with the design of my business, even though he doesn't write fiction or even any books, it's similar.
[00:10:13] So I urge people listen and find the voice that you resonate with. And maybe it's you, Matty, or maybe it is me, or maybe it's someone else. And that can be in different areas of your life as well. And then, as you say, listen to them. Like Kristine Kathryn Rusch is someone for both of us, whose voice I trust. And Dean Wesley Smith as well. But, you know, they talk in different ways and it's very important to find these voices because it's so noisy out there.
[00:10:42] Matty: Yes. And I would say that anything that The Creative Penn is doing now, The Indy Author is going to be doing in three or four years. So you guys can anticipate my business plan. Which I think is a good entree into the futurist topic.
[00:10:58] Looking forward, there are many interesting technical and societal changes that you talk about periodically on The Creative Penn. And they're not the things that are hitting Publishers Weekly necessarily, or the places people may be going for what they should be doing today. But I do believe there are steps people can be taking today to prepare for those things that seem a little more out there. So what would be some examples of what those things are and what steps people can take to prepare for them?
[00:11:28] Joanna: Well, of course you primed me for this question. And I had to think about it because obviously I'm very interested in things like artificial intelligence and the way that it's going to disrupt our business model. But in a way, we're at the point of that arc, right now, of just being aware of it. So in terms of your more practical question, which is how can people take advantage of trends?
[00:11:50] So I've pulled it back a bit. And my first one is going to be something I've talked about for years, which is global, digital, mobile. Yes. So having a global, digital, mobile business model, and this is how I've designed my business. And I know you've been listening to me on that, but what's so interesting in 2020 is the pandemic has accelerated these trends.
[00:12:12] And I know particularly Americans -- sorry, Americans listening, and America is this fantastic country and there's a lot of business going on there -- but if you look at the growth in digital sales for eBooks, print on demand, audio books, and for things like podcasts and all of that, my podcast has been downloaded in 228 countries, and I have sold books in 158 countries. So most authors will not have sold books in that many countries and their books may not even be available there.
[00:12:45] So a very interesting example is France. The French very much have protected the traditional publishing industry hugely. So much so that they have penalized Amazon, for example, you can't have free shipping in France for books or anything I believe. But Amazon got around that by having it for a cent or Euro or something like that.
[00:13:07] So what's happened with France and Spain and Italy in the pandemic is these are markets where print has been dominant, but with print bookstores not available for months during the pandemic, people have switched online. So we've been waiting for this change for so long. So even though I've been saying global, digital, mobile for over a decade, it feels like the shift in 2020 has actually meant that it's starting to happen.
[00:13:33] So people now have realized they can use their mobile devices, their tablets, to shop for books. And what's going to happen in the next five years -- so between 2020 and 2025 -- we're going to see essentially the rest of the world come on board, which is, you know, several billion more people will be coming online through mobile devices.
[00:13:59] And this is an example of leapfrog technology. It's very hard for us to understand that being in the US or the UK, because our experience has been no computers, followed by massive desktop computers, followed by laptops, followed by a mobile device. Whereas most people in the rest of the world are going from no computer to a mobile device. So it's very hard for us to understand how the experience of reading and the experience of buying will be different.
[00:14:33] But my challenge to everyone is to think, okay, now the floodgates are open and now we know that in the next five years, several billion more people are coming online. And given that English is the most international language, the challenge is, can your books be bought in every country on mobile devices and / or apps? And we're not going to get into the technical ways of publishing, but it's not difficult to do this. And yet I feel like most authors concentrate on their home market without considering the other possibilities.
[00:15:09] Matty: Talk a little bit about the role that Android plays in that trend.
[00:15:14] Joanna: The fact is that you can get an Android, and I always use the word smartphone, my husband just laughs at me, he's like, Nobody uses the phrase "smartphone." I'm like, Yes, they do. Because in many countries, a mobile phone is still not a smartphone, so it doesn't have the internet on, for example. But what this rollout of internet 5G is going to make a big difference as well. But a lot of countries will have 4G internet. That's going to be the first thing they experience. And so real true smartphones are now becoming available for just a couple of dollars. And this is the thing -- we all think, again, in the West that smartphones are an $800 iPhone or a thousand-dollar iPhone, but it can be a $5 Android device that can still access the internet.
[00:16:00] So Google Play obviously is the default app on an Android. And I feel like most authors are ignoring Google Play. Whereas they're actually coming into their own, really. But equally lots of other apps can appear on the Android devices. And so that's something to consider. Think about the closed ecosystems that people might publish on.
[00:16:24] So for example, if you only publish audio on Audible and / or iTunes, then you're really going to miss out on that market. And if you're using prices that are US dollar skewed and not changing to territory pricing, you're going to miss out on that too. So I just think that so much of what we do has not even started. Like you and I take this stuff for granted because we've been doing it a while, but I think the pandemic has made me realize all this news about how many more people have discovered online things like Zoom. I'm like, Really? Were people not doing this before? And so you realize that the majority of people might not have gotten an ebook for free on Kobo or listened to a podcast on Google Podcasts or whatever. So that's just something for people to consider.
[00:17:18] Matty: A real strength of Zoom is the fact that it opens up networking opportunities for authors, where in the past, they might've just gone down to the coffee shop and gotten together with other writers in their local writers’ groups. Now, if you can get that initial introduction, you can really network with anyone anywhere.
[00:17:38] Joanna: Yes, absolutely. And I think that we're going to have a hybrid approach, I think, as per usual. I'm certainly craving some conferences, which I never thought I would say in my life. I'm an introvert and I feel like, Do you know what? I'd really like to go to a conference and not always be online. But equally it will be that hybrid approach that people need to do.
[00:18:01] And that is another thing is you do need to upskill for this type of thing -- for interviews, for performing through a computer. It's still a professional speaking opportunity. I spoke on Saturday to a group of like 200 authors through Zoom and it has its own anxieties, and it has its own difficulties. And you still need to be able to project energy through a screen, which can be quite difficult compared to doing it in person. So I think you're right. And certainly networking, it will open it up to more people because, as you say, it will be more global. And it will also mean that potentially the human relationships where you meet people in person will become more important in a way, because they'll become more memorable for example.
[00:18:49] Matty: And it will be nice when we can share gin and tonics at the hotel conference bar, as opposed to just sitting in our own living room, looking at the same screen with our gin and tonic.
[00:18:59] Joanna: Yes. And I do think, just to bring in virtual reality and augmented reality -- let's just be aware of this, this is not mainstream at all as yet -- I just saw the latest Oculus. I think it's Oculus Quest. It's about £300, which is about $400 with the exchange rate right now. And it doesn't need a PC. Everything is in the headset. Now, as far as I can see, it's still pretty bulky. If people don't know, it's like a big pair of goggles, like a diving mask, but what it does mean it is getting better and better. So I do anticipate that we will be networking, speaking, presenting within virtual reality, which will almost be the next thing after the Zoom / Skype experience, which will be one step better.
[00:19:47] Now that will be very interesting because of course we're creatives, we're very used to making things up. If you can make your avatar something different, that is going to be fascinating. I could potentially present as Morgan Sierra, my main Arkane character, at some kind of event and put on a different body and different hairstyle or whatever. I could present as Jake Timber, I guess, who's her partner in crime.
[00:20:14] But it is interesting to think how the online human relationships will change. For example, SECOND LIFE, I know people who are still in SECOND LIFE, but when SECOND LIFE goes into VR -- which they have a community for that right now, but it's certainly not mainstream -- that will be very interesting. But again, that's not something you can practically get involved with right now as an author unless you are in a much more technical space.
[00:20:44] Matty: It seems as if a baby step toward that could be something that I heard you and Orna Ross talk about in a related discussion that I'm going to link to in the show notes for this episode, "How Will Self-publishing Change in the 2020s?" -- that came out in January.
[00:21:00] Joanna: I can't even remember that now. That was pre-pandemic.
[00:21:03] Matty: That was pre-pandemic, and it was interesting because there was a certain amount of discussion about in-person conferences, but you had mentioned that you had either done or were thinking of doing a virtual tour of Bath based on the locations of your books. And I know that Mark Lefebvre has done this with some of his non-fiction ghost stories in, Hamilton, Ontario, doing a virtual tour.
[00:21:28] And that might be a nice entree to thinking about one's stories in a more visual, more interactive way for people to maybe just get out their smartphone camera, turn on the video, and take people on a tour of their novel settings.
[00:21:45] Joanna: Yeah. And I think right now that is a video on YouTube. I did a podcast episode on Bath on my BOOKS AND TRAVEL podcast, which is my other podcast. And this is where we have to be practical and I need to rein myself back. I'm permanently jumping on things and going, Oh, look, this is cool. I'm going to try this out and see how it is, and then I'm like, No, you need to concentrate on the things that you can control, which is why I reined this back to the stuff that is worth doing.
[00:22:14] It's definitely worth making a video about the settings that are in your book or a podcast or whatever, but I spoke to Mark about his thing and it really is just an audio tour based on location stuff and the amount of time things take to do have to relate to some kind of business goals. So like we talked about before, around podcasting, if your goal is just marketing, then fine. But if you want to make income, you might have to do things in a different way.
[00:22:42] So I do want to bring this back to a related topic, which I'm still struggling to articulate about the future, but it is related to what we've talked about, which is that I believe digital income from books alone -- and when I say books here, I'm talking about eBooks audio books, print on demand books -- that will diminish. And this is based on exactly what I just said around global, digital, mobile, and what has happened with the music industry and the acceleration of streaming and subscription models, which a lot of us are and looking at the moment, especially in terms of audio with Spotify coming into audio books. It's not just Kindle Unlimited for eBooks. It's also all the other ones.
[00:23:29] So why I think this is important for futurist trends, especially if you want to be a full-time author, is that you need to understand that, yes, you have to be on these platforms. But then you have to consider that book sales income alone is not a full-time income. And even if it has been in the past, it may well not be in the future, if the income continues to come down, which is what we have seen with e-books and with audio books, for sure. My best year for eBooks, in terms of related to the number of books I have was 2016 before KU really hit and for audio books, I think that 2021 is going to be a big shift because more and more listeners are moving to subscription.
[00:24:21] So I don't want people to see that as a negative. I want people to see that as the reality of consumption means that you need to think about other forms of income. So for example, we've seen massive Kickstarters. People like Brandon Sanderson made over $6.7 million for doing a special edition for his fans. Now you don't need to make $6.7 million, but even if you make even $20K or something, that can be a big thing. Patreon again is something that I really love. Other forms, you know, speaking, you can do paid speaking. There are lots of ways to make other income streams. So that is my kind of warning sign around digital income. Keep an eye on that. So what do you think about that?
[00:25:11] Matty: One thing I wanted to mention is that I'm going to be having a conversation with Joshua Essoe about Kickstarter in an episode that I think will come out shortly after yours will. And so people can keep an eye out for that. My thought about the subscription, that totally makes sense to me, and I guess that a concrete step people could take is first of all, scan your own usage and see where you're a subscriber that you might not even be thinking about. And if you're not a subscriber, maybe try subscribing to one of these services that provides content on a subscription basis, because I think it's important to experience these things as consumer before you can take full advantage of them as a content creator.
[00:25:52] Joanna: Netflix is a really good example because a friend of mine who's an author just couldn't get her head around this. And I said, you have Netflix, you pay £7 a month for all this content, and you expect it to be there and you expect to be able to get hours and hours and hours of incredible content for this tiny payment. And the same with Spotify. I've just been reading a lot about how that has changed musicians' income. And we knew this was happening in terms of the music industry, similar to the publishing industry in terms of business models changing and what happens when things go digital.
[00:26:30] But I just think what's happened again this year is it's gone mainstream. So for example, I knew that the Kindle and eBooks had gone mainstream when my mum got a Kindle. I think it was probably 2016 when she got one, and then this year, during the pandemic, my mum has moved to Netflix. And I think when my mum does something -- she's like 73 -- I think, okay, that is mainstream then, because she's very cautious, she doesn't even have internet banking, stuff like that, because she's worried about technology. So when she makes a shift like that, it makes me go okay, there's a whole load of people who are not just the edge of the world, now this is really gone mainstream.
[00:27:16] We know that Spotify is going to come into audio books in 2021, and that is changing the behavior of some of the other players in the market. And so I do think that the action to me is to say that by 2022, you better have other streams of income, just in case that all of these moves to subscription means that your revenue model changes. Because what it means is lots of micro payments instead of bigger chunks.
[00:27:49] Matty: Your comment about your mom getting a Kindle sort of suggests the other side of that, which is there's an everything old is new again aspect, which is that once the Kindle came out with the adjustable text size, I thought, this is such a great boon for people who have a sight impairment. Now these awkward large print books are going to be a thing of the past. And true to my business plan, you had recommended large print. You had done large print, I think maybe initially for your mom's books and then for your own and pointed out that you can do it with very little investment other than a little bit of time. So I thought, okay, I'm going to try to do that. And it's been quite profitable.
[00:28:29] And so there are some things that I would never have thought I would bring up print books in a conversation about futurist trends. But people shouldn't be discounting those things that have been around for a long time and maybe either are having a second wind or are dying off much more slowly than we might've thought five years ago.
[00:28:51] Joanna: Oh, you're exactly right. And the same thing in music. So what has come back? Well, vinyl, you know, vinyl became a thing. And Patreon also became a thing for musicians and obviously touring, which you could equate with speaking as a non-fiction writer, for example. But certainly, Brandon Sanderson's Kickstarter is a good example of a limited-edition print object.
[00:29:13] I have definitely started looking into doing these as well. We do large print with print on demand and it's still great for libraries and all of that. But again, I don't know how much of that is just a demographic that will, just to put it bluntly, die off at some point, because I do think that if you are younger, you are probably changing the way you're consuming in terms of, like you say, with digital audio, stuff like that. I hope that won't offend anyone.
[00:29:41] But it's like with print and special editions, you can do some really interesting stuff. And I think we need to almost be more creative. I feel like indy authors have taken the basics for granted for too long. I think that's really how I'm feeling. So to me now you have to have an ebook. You have to have a print on demand paperback. You really probably should have an audio book if you have a big enough catalog and a budget for it. But those things are almost the basics that are necessary.
[00:30:12] And then we need to be creative around some of these other things. So like you said, the limited edition, maybe doing things like Patreon for short stories. There's unlimited numbers -- like merchandise, some people do merchandise, that type of thing. So it's getting creative around stuff and not relying on what has been the bread and butter, I think for most indy authors for a decade probably.
[00:30:36] Matty: Some of what you're saying about the limited edition and the special Kickstarter bonuses of beautifully made books, I think also suggests a trend that I would not have anticipated a couple of years ago, which is that I would have thought things would get bigger and bigger and more and more digitized. And now I think there's this kind of backlash against that, where people are looking for the personalized experiences. And I know you had said that you were switching away from having a focus strictly on scalability to more personalization. I'm not sure I'm expressing that accurately, but can you comment on that?
[00:31:15] Joanna: Yes. Well, that brings us neatly to my third thing that I had on my list to talk about, which is personal brand. And again, this is something that is not new but it's something that is becoming more and more important. And it ties into what you're saying there, which is, it is very, very, very noisy out there. And I mean, I consume books voraciously. I read a lot, but can I remember them a week or two later? Often, I can't. It's difficult, but it's true. I mean, even I can't remember what I created back in January.
[00:31:50] So if you think about, that's me and that's my life, and then if you consider the artificial intelligence tools like GPT-3, which is the text generation tool, there are -- and I'm going to be reporting on this on my show soon -- but there are now books on Amazon written by GPT-3. They're not necessarily selling very well, but there was so much content that the main thing is to become more memorable and by building a personal brand and by demonstrating how you stand out. As I've said before, you know, you can't beat the machine, you have to double down on being human and being you.
[00:32:26] And so as you mentioned, when the pandemic is over, when we are back out in the world again, I want to do some events here in Bath because the location is very special and I'm ready to do in-person events that are very limited in terms of the people who could come to that, but also there'll be much more memorable.
[00:32:49] And, you know, I will always remember you because we've met in person and hung out together and that makes you stand out in my mind. And I think as much as we can network online, meeting people physically is still going to make a difference.
[00:33:06] I also think that what we've seen on both sides of your American political spectrum is a backlash against big tech. So we may find that these tools are not even available. There's been action in Congress against Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple around their domination in some of these areas. So it may be that the tools we take for granted may change in the next few years.
[00:33:31] So having a personal brand, building your email list, building a channel, you can speak to people, means that you can make money in these other ways. So you can email people about a Kickstarter or you can put out a podcast episode and have patrons pay for that, or you can do these different things. So, yeah, I definitely think that personal brand is more important. And if people listening are new, then you grow into this. Nobody knows what their personal brand is in the beginning and nobody knows their own voice. You just have to give things a try and you'll grow into it.
[00:34:06] Matty: I want to ask you very literally about voice, because we were talking about some things people should start doing in order to prepare for these trends that we're discussing. And I don't want to overlook things perhaps people should consider stop doing because of this. And specifically I'm thinking about narrating audio books and specifically narrating non-fiction audio books, because I've been trying to get the audio book for TAKING THE SHORT TACK done for months. And I'm slowly, painfully making progress on it. And then when I'm done with that, I'm going to want to have an audio book for PODCASTING FOR AUTHORS.
[00:34:39] But I've also plugged text into the voice double that I created through Descript and it doesn't sound all that bad. What is your thought about the pros and cons of AI narration for audio books, and then feel free to take that further into audio in general?
[00:34:58] Joanna: I think we're talking at a point where I just don't know -- up until really recently I still would have thought it was worth doing, but I was actually talking to Mark Lefebvre, our mutual friend, about this the other day. And I feel like we're in what Seth Godin calls the dip. So there's a point at which the technology is going to be almost perfect, but we're not there yet, and I'm not sure how long it's going to take. I mean, it feels to me like we might only be 18 months away from that being very, very good.
[00:35:36] But of course the other side is are the retailers and the subscription services going to allow that to be sold or borrowed? And the other question is how much should it cost? So I think what we're in right now, and I know exactly what you mean, because I almost feel, again, we're recording this November 2020, and I haven't fully decided myself whether it's worth doing, paying for premium audio right now, because I almost wonder if by 2022, 2023, it will be mass market AI audio, which will be almost like eBooks. They'll just be so much that everything will be in audio. And then what you'll have is a bit like we're talking about with these special editions, you'll have the human narrated audio will be some kind of special edition.
[00:36:34] So for example, you can hear the I'm coming up with stuff on the fly. You know I'm not reading from the screen. I would be much more polished if I was reading from a screen. So maybe you could get one of my books in audio for the AI narrated version, which is literally an AI voice that sounds like me, just reading the text, and that might be cheap. It might just be part of your subscription and I get a tiny micro payment for that.
[00:37:01] Then I might have a special edition audio where at the end of every chapter, I will go off the book and I will come up with interesting things on the fly that if you're a fan of mine, you might be interested in getting that version because you want the extra information that comes with that special edition. And so that would just be a different product. It would be more costly to produce. And with fiction, it would be the difference between an AI voice narrating it and a professional actor, or some of these wonderful voice dramas that we're having with multiple actors and music and all of that. So that's how I see the future going. I see there being a sort of baseline AI production of an audio. And then I see there being these multiple other editions.
[00:37:55] And the reason this is also interesting is because traditional publishing contracts right now, and some independent author contracts, do not encompass this vast array of potential audio. Or as I talked about before, if people like our voices, that's great. But what if an American listening to one of my books would prefer it narrated rated in an American accent, or they prefer it by an African-American man, for example, or what if I want books read in by an English female voice.
[00:38:28] So I think that will come as well as that you'll be able to pick a narrator for a book. And that again is a completely different licensing structure. So yeah, I feel like we're in the dip, you know, we're almost on the cusp of what is going to be an explosion of audio technology, but we're not quite there yet.
[00:38:48] So the question is, do you want to invest? I think you should do these two books yourself. I don't think it's good enough yet. And also, you can't sell it because no platform will allow you to upload AI audio books right now. And you could give it away for free on your website, but what you have to decide is what is worth doing.
[00:39:08] So that's how I feel. I do think that we're coming into this very interesting time.
[00:39:15] Joanna: I think that we're on just on the cusp of a lot of change in terms of technology, but that's why I wanted to bring up the income around the things that we've taken for granted because with more and more tech change and more and more personalization, more and more content, because of course, with AI translation, which is incredibly good, it's a step change this year to what it was last year.
[00:39:41] It's so improved like every five minutes. It stuns me how AI translation is going. And I mean that plus a voice so that we could get our books done so easily just shows you how much an explosion of content is coming and how much choice we will have as consumers, but also inevitably with more choice, the price comes down, and that's what we've seen with streaming and subscriptions.
[00:40:09] So I see both a very positive shift with the opportunities to get our work out there, but also we have to be cognizant of the impact on our author businesses and continue to build up relationships with readers so that we can make a living if we do make a living online, which of course most authors don't, but many people listening to your show, I guess, might want that.
[00:40:35] Matty: I like the idea that I shouldn't give up on narrating the audio books, because the end product will be different. It could be two products. It could be me as a human being narrating the audio books, and then in a couple of years at a lower price, making the AI version available.
[00:40:51] Joanna: That's what I think it will happen.
[00:40:53] Matty: Do you think the same is true for translation? Because translation is something that I have never pursued, and I don't have any plans to pursue, because my hope is that the AI translations will come along quickly enough that it's not worth it for me to invest that money into getting a translation done. What are your thoughts about that?
[00:41:14] Joanna: I've read your work, your nonfiction work particularly, is very well structured. And I would think your books would quite easily be translated by an AI translation tool, your non-fiction as I have done with my non-fiction into German, but I still had to pay for a human editor from the AI translation.
[00:41:33] But I agree with you. I decided to not do any more translations. I am licensing in translation, but that's because that's money in the pocket now and also a limited timeframe and getting those rights back, getting Korean rights back, in 10 years’ time. I think by then, we might have some, yeah, the AI translation will be mainstream.
[00:41:55] But I definitely agree with you. I don't think it's worth investing in translation now. If you're bilingual, it can be a good way to get your work there in a language that you already conversant in. So I think the problem is the marketing. The problem is building a fan base and a lot of the publishers in these other countries have done that.
[00:42:15] So that is another really important thing. It's not just that we have books available, it's that we also market them. The same is going to happen if you think of every author gets all their work into an AI audio or in AI translated German, that doesn't mean anyone's going to buy it. So we have to keep coming back to the practicalities of our author business and how much we're able to do in the bandwidth we have. With all this choice we have, you have to decide what you're going to focus on.
[00:42:44] And I think just to bring it back to where we started, really, which is we're still writers and we can be interested in this stuff and curious, but we have to focus on the things that are the core of our business. And that is creating new books and reaching readers. And hopefully we've talked about some interesting things, but I guess not everything is so practical to get into right now.
[00:43:07] Matty: If people are intrigued by these topics, do you have some recommendations for where they should go to find out more about some of these futurist trends?
[00:43:16] Joanna: On my site, The Creative Penn, I've actually got a page, so it's thecreativepenn.com/future. And I collected a whole load of stuff there, and the various episodes I do on my show -- for example, AI and creativity and how artificial intelligence is going to disrupt us -- I keep all my main things there. Also I've got a load of book recommendations. And I do share on my show, every few weeks I'll share a futurist segment of stuff I'm thinking about.
[00:43:47] And I read a lot of blogs and I listened to a lot of podcasts, so I won't recommend all of those, but I do try and curate them, as I said. And I will be doing an update in early December 2020 will be my next AI update show. So I think find the people you want to listen to, I think that would be the thing.
[00:44:07] Matty: Excellent. And you've mentioned TheCreative Penn.com and The Creative Penn Podcast. Is there anywhere else you'd like to send people if they want to find out more about you?
[00:44:16] Joanna: Oh, thank you. Any questions, Twitter is the best place at The Creative Penn. And my fiction is all under J F Penn, Jo Frances Penn. And I also have the BOOKS AND TRAVEL podcast. So if you like books and travel, come on over to that one, which is quite different to the types of topics we've talked about today.
[00:44:36] But, thanks so much for having me Matty. That was great fun.
[00:44:39] Matty: It has been great fun. Thank you, Joanna
Links
What did you think of this episode? Leave a comment and let us know!
